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Photo : Kremlin.ru
05 July 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #245
War in Ukraine: Day 131
By Rishma Banerjee
War on the Ground
On 04 July, the governor of Kharkiv, Oleh Synyehubov said that missiles hit a school in the region. The Donetsk People’s Republic said that Ukraine’s forces shelled 15 of the 240 settlements under their control, in the region. Reportedly, five people were killed and 20 were injured. Moreover, Ukraine’s forces are targeting Russian military infrastructure with indirect fire and with HIMARS systems which have been provided by the US. They struck Russian ammunition depots in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Melitopol and Zaporizhzhia.
The Governor of Luhansk region, Serhiy Gaidai, told Reuters that Bakhmut in the Donetsk region was facing increased shelling after the fall of Lysychansk. Gaidai spoke to Reuters after the withdrawal of troops was reported from Lysychansk. He said that after their capture of the Luhansk region, Russia’s forces are likely to move into Sloviansk city and Bakhmut town. He also mentioned that while the fall of Luhansk is indeed a ‘painful’ affair for him, it is still not the end of the war for Ukraine. Reflecting on what could be Russia’s immediate strategy, he said: “They (Russian forces) will not transfer 100% of their troops to some front because they need to hold the line. If they leave their positions, then ours can carry out some kind of counter-offensive.”
On 04 July, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Sweden’s Prime Minister, Magdalena Andersson. In his nightly address, he informed that primarily a new defence package was discussed. During the meeting with Andersson, he said that Ukraine is conducting talks with Turkey and the UN to facilitate a smooth export of grains from Ukraine’s ports. Zelenskyy also addressed the fall of Lysychansk and said that with the help of long-range Western weapons, Ukraine will surely regain control over the area.
Moreover, Zelenskyy met with senior politicians from Ukraine and spoke about the USD 750 billion recovery plan of Ukraine. The plan has 27 sectors and has is into two stages- the medium term (2023-2025) and the long term (2026-2032). Prime minister Denys Smhyal elaborated on the sectors that would need immediate attention. He said that there has been direct infrastructural damage worth USD 100 billion so far, including 1,200 educational institutions, 200 hospitals and thousands of kilometres of gas pipelines, water and electricity networks, roads and railways.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 04 July, in a televised meeting with Russia’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, President Vladimir Putin congratulated the forces for their victory in the Luhansk region. He also suggested that the members of the forces should rest and recover from the recent ordeal. Shoigu provided an elaborate list of Ukraine’s losses in Luhansk. He said 2,218 military personnel from Ukraine had been killed and 3,251 wounded; 196 tanks and armoured vehicles, 12 aircraft, one helicopter, 69 drones, six long-range surface-to-air missile systems, 97 multiple rocket launchers among other things have been affected by this recent offensive by Russia.
On the same day, Russia’s space agency, Roscosmos, released photos of Russian cosmonauts on the International Space Station (ISS). They were shown holding the self-proclaimed republics in Luhansk and Donetsk. Roscosmos also released a statement regarding the same and said: “This is a long-awaited day that residents of the occupied areas of the Luhansk region have been waiting for eight years. We are confident that 3 July 2022 will for ever go down in the history of the republic.”
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 04 July, the European Investment Bank proposed a new funding structure, similar to the one used for Europe during the COVID 19 pandemic, for rebuilding Ukraine. They have suggested up to EUR 100 billion of investment for the same. They clarified that through the EU-Ukraine Gateway Trust Fund, they will ask member countries to initially contribute EUR 20 billion in the form of grants, loans and guarantees.
On 03 July, Turkey stopped a Russian cargo ship off its Black Sea coast. It has been alleged that the ship was carrying grains stolen from Ukraine. Turkey’s senior official has said that the allegations are being investigated thoroughly. Ukraine’s ambassador to Turkey, Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar said: "We have full cooperation. The ship is currently standing at the entrance to the port, it has been detained by the customs authorities of Turkey."
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
Syria’s ambassador to Russia, Riad Haddad said that they are aware of Kremlin’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine and were in full support of the same. He highlighted that this was important for Russia’s national security. According to the Haddad, Russia is having to deal with mercenaries and a misleading media war waged by the West. He also mentioned that the economic blockade on Russia is ‘unjust’ and is similar to what the West had done in Syria.
References
Samantha Lock and Tom Ambrose, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 132 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 04 July 2022
Tom Balmforth, “Russia will focus on Ukraine's Donetsk region after taking Luhansk, regional governor says,” Reuters, 04 July 2022
“The recovery of Ukraine is not only about what needs to be done after the victory, but also about what we and our partners should do now - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” President of Ukraine, 04 July 2022
“Zelenskiy says Ukraine is in talks with Turkey, UN on grain exports,” Reuters, 05 July 2022
Patrick Wintour, “Ukraine lays out $750bn ‘recovery plan’ for postwar future,” The Guardian, 04 July 2022
“Meeting with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu,” President of Russia, 04 July 2022
Martin Belam, “Russia releases photo of cosmonauts holding Luhansk flag on ISS,” The Guardian, 04 July 2022
“Russian offensive campaign assessment, July 4,” Institute for the Study of War, 04 July 2022
“EU lending arm aims to raise 100 bln euros to help rebuild Ukraine,” Reuters, 04 July 2022
Orhan Coskun, “Turkey halts Russian ship, investigates Ukrainian claims -senior official,” Reuters, 04 July 2022
“Syria fully backs Russia’s military operation in Ukraine,” TASS, 04 July 2022
"Russian ship carrying Ukrainian grain detained by Turkish customs: Envoy," Daily Sabha, 03 July 2022
IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav
FRANCE
President Macron to reshuffle his cabinet after June’s election loss
On 04 July, president Emmanuel Macron of France reshuffled his cabinet following the loss of getting a majority in last month's elections. He retained a few prominent ministers while changing the rest. Ministers for defence, finance, and foreign affairs are the same while the portfolios of the rest were shuffled. Ministers who lost their seats in June's election have been replaced by people selected by Macron so that they can rebalance his alliance after the loss. The reshuffling came into fruition because of French political tradition that the ministers who lost their seats should resign from the cabinet. The major change was the removal of the solidarity minister Damien Abad due to him facing rape charges which he denied. ("France: Macron reshuffles Cabinet after election struggles," Deutsche Welle, 04 July 2022)
IRELAND
Government allocates EUR 70 million for the Shared Island find
On 05 June, over EUR 70 million was approved by the government of Ireland for cross-border initiatives. These cross-border initiatives include resuming the restoration of the Ulster Canal, an all-island electric vehicle charging infrastructure scheme, and art investment projects. The money is allocated to the Shared Island Fund, in which the Irish government had already given EUR 50 million in 2021. The restoration of the canal will also include new road bridges, a marina and heritage architecture. The electric car project is said to be delivering charge points in sports clubs and centres all across the island. The all-island partnership will benefit people from all communities and traditions. ("Ulster Canal to benefit from cross-border fund," BBC News, 05 July 2022)
ITALY
Declares a state of emergency after the north faces severe drought
On 04 July, Italy declared a state of emergency for the region around the Po river. The country is facing severe drought in the area surrounding the river Po, which holds roughly a third of the country's agricultural production. This might lead to enforcing water rationing for homes and businesses. Many waterways in North Italy have dried up and the flow is weaker which has led to the seawater seeping inland in turn ruining the crops. The regions that fell under the state of emergency were Emilia-Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lombardy, Piedmont and Veneto. To overcome the water shortages, funds of EUR 36.5 million were designated for these regions. The state of emergency took care of people's assistance and relief. Further measures could be taken to prevent the same from happening in the future in central Italy. Prime minister Mario Draghi is contemplating appointing a commissioner to take care of the drought response. ("Italy declares state of emergency for drought-stricken north," Reuters, 05 July 2022)
THE UK
Solar energy becoming the solution to surging energy bills
On 03 July, the UK turned its attention to solar power due to increased energy prices. The UK's citizens have been looking into ways to cut down the expensive energy bills. Solar power getting a reduction in VAT from five per cent to zero grasped the interest of the people. As the cost of living crisis increases day by day, people are choosing green energy products as they are cheaper and healthier for the planet. The government is encouraging the use of solar panels with incentives. The solar energy industry is seeing a boom as many people are turning toward renewable sources of energy. Even businesses like Amazon are looking to use solar energy as the electricity bill along with labour costs increase. There has been a shortage of solar panels in companies that sell them due to the huge demand from the people. (Alex Lawson, "‘It’s hot’: UK interest in solar power heats up as energy bills soar," the Guardian, 03 July 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
China issues warning to the UK about having trade talks with Taiwan
On 04 July, China issued a warning to the UK about having trade talks with Taiwan. Taiwan's chief trade negotiator met with his counterpart from the UK to discuss bilateral trade relations between the two countries and also about joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership(CPTPP) trade bloc. China sent a clear signal to the UK stating that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China. Taiwan had submitted a formal application to be a member of the CPTPP just a week after China submitted its application. The UK too is eyeing being a member of the trade bloc and had talks with the minister of Taiwan John Deng. The UK's foreign secretary Liz Truss said on a radio show that the world needed to learn from Ukraine and also that Taiwan be made sure of having the ability to defend itself so that it can maintain peace. (Graham Lanktree, "UK risks Chinese anger over trade talks with Taiwan," POLITICO, 04 July 2022)
Israel and Poland to improve their deteriorated relation
On 04 July, relations between Israel and Poland resumed after they had fallen apart due to the world war two-property incident. Poland introduced a law that limited the chance of the Jews recovering their world war two properties. The bill affected the properties that were confiscated by the Nazi German occupiers and secured by Poland's communist rulers after the war. Leaders of both nations agreed to restore their relations and improve them. Both countries would send official ambassadors to each other. If any problems arise between the two nations, they would be solved through sincere and open dialogue and in a spirit of mutual respect. ("Israel, Poland to restore relations strained by Holocaust restitution row," Reuters, 05 July 2022)